Skeptical about claim Russian meteor is 1 in 100 years event


There was an earthquake detected a few years ago from the Pacific that scientists speculated was caused by a meteor exploding with the force of about 1 megaton, which they estimated would be about a 9 meter diameter asteroid as well.  That would be significantly larger than the one that hit Russia and would cause more damage.  Instead of lighting up the city and rattling windows it might have vaporized it. 

However it was over open water and nobody seemed to be around.  

A meteor was the default explanation because nothing else made sense.  There was no volcano, the quake was shallow, no fault zone, with an explosion type signature. 

There is a big methodological issue about how we can know about the number of sizeable meteor hits when except for the largest over water there will be no crater, most of the time they will hit in remote areas with few people around, and the technology to monitor things like small quakes worldwide has not been around for very long. 

The Pacific impact may have never been verified which raises a sub issue, if there is a probable meteor strike as big as a megaton in force and it doesn’t go into the books for lack of direct information, how do we make any sensible valuation at all?

There could be dozens of these things hitting every century.

As the species spreads out, it will get harder and harder for meteors to hit without affecting people. 

There is no empirical foundation at all for claiming that such meteor strikes only happen every hundred years.  It is highly likely that a more powerful strike occurred just a few years ago, and that’s just the information that we do know. 


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