These 2015 Predictions Will Probably Be Wrong

These 2015 Predictions Will Probably Be Wrong –

To predict the future step one is look at the past.

The economic situation is dynamic enough that a plausible argument can be made for a lot of different scenarios. 

Experts are good at that, and they’re supposed to be.  Educated and articulate, any decent one knows how to make a rational chain of reasoning.

The weight to be given to different factors though is debatable.

So will economic weakness elsewhere drag the US down? Hard to say.  Sometimes that dominates, sometimes it doesn’t.

Key is looking at predictions from 2009 to present.  There is no other way to assess whose judgement is better in the post crash economy.

That is particularly true for the short run.

In the long run fundamentals take over, but trying to predict when they will overtake irrational group behavior is hard. 

E.g. with the housing price crash that had been predicted by some for years.


Racists Melt Down Over Steve Scalise

Racists Melt Down Over Steve Scalise –

Keep em talking so everybody can see what the Republican party is really about.  It’s the party of hate towards women, other races, other religions and damn near everything.

On the point about whites being a majority of voters, that raises a related issue for Democrats, women are the majority of voters.

If women decided to collectively flex their muscle and start voting against a Republican party that opposes women’s equality and wants to force them to be baby factories.

The latter issue is in the context that with global pollution and competition for resources, the greatest contribution anybody can make isn’t getting a Prius or solar panels, it’s aborting every unwanted pregnancy. 

Abort a fetus and you are aborting everything it will ever use or need.  We need population under control and to the extent we don’t do it voluntarily it will happen involuntarily, either by human action or by nature.

Flu Reaches Epidemic Levels In U.S.

Flu Reaches Epidemic Levels In U.S. –

The latest flu seems to be moving concurrently with the latest rhinovirus here, it’s a particularly nasty combination.

Police Chief Pens Powerful Response To Man Criticizing Recent Protests

Police Chief Pens Powerful Response To Man Criticizing Recent Protests –

Wow, New York should try to hire this guy.

‘Annie’ Target Ads Criticized For Using White Models

‘Annie’ Target Ads Criticized For Using White Models –

Well that was more shrill than a dog whistle.

Companies that are allowed to use a licence to associate with a movie frequently don’t use the stars as models and frequently sell products that don’t have the faintest connection to the movie.

Would the star rather be on her next movie set or doing a photo shoot for discount clothing.  Tough call.  To make it happen would probably cost an absurd amount of money too, an implied endorsement probably would include sharing revenue.

The original story is about a natural red head, and those have the lightest skins.  So do you go with the story, the original movie or the new movie.

Then there’s the issue of whether it is licensed, “Annie” isn’t like “Battlestar Galactica”, it’s a name and nobody can copyright it.  They can walk a line where they create a mental association without actually implying a connection but they have to tread carefully to avoid a lawsuit and some deliberate dissimilar features in the campaign can help with that.

Cosby Team’s Strategy: Hush Accusers, Insult Them And Blame The Media

Cosby Team’s Strategy: Hush Accusers, Insult Them And Blame The Media –

I think to understand it you have to look at the process.

Early on with few accusers they were more aggressive.

Remember what happened to the former head of the IMF, sometimes these are shakedowns.  There’s nothing responding in the media to what is raised in the media.

Then there is the issue of where all this is going for both sides.  With expired limitations this looks headed to stalemate.

If he can’t bring himself to come clean now, he should do something in his will for those with real claims that are expired.

Cops Reportedly Say They’re Not Making Arrests After Cop Killings

Cops Reportedly Say They’re Not Making Arrests After Cop Killings –

Sounds like there’s a bunch of conflations here.

For instance, there’s going to be no crime deterrant for most minor traffic tickets, so it isn’t really a “broken windows” type issue.

A lot of the more important conflicts are caused by “stop and frisk” racial profiling and it’s unclear if that is down.

When 90% of blacks stopped and frisked aren’t charged with anything it’s clear that it’s a form of unwarranted harassment.  It’s like the saying even a stopped clock is right twice per day, that it sometimes catches people doesn’t mean it’s a good policy, and because it’s unconstitutional any evidence they find ought to be tossed anyways.

It’s not clear what these numbers mean but if they reflect a reduction in harassment and a return to real police work I’m all for it.