These 2015 Predictions Will Probably Be Wrong

These 2015 Predictions Will Probably Be Wrong –

To predict the future step one is look at the past.

The economic situation is dynamic enough that a plausible argument can be made for a lot of different scenarios. 

Experts are good at that, and they’re supposed to be.  Educated and articulate, any decent one knows how to make a rational chain of reasoning.

The weight to be given to different factors though is debatable.

So will economic weakness elsewhere drag the US down? Hard to say.  Sometimes that dominates, sometimes it doesn’t.

Key is looking at predictions from 2009 to present.  There is no other way to assess whose judgement is better in the post crash economy.

That is particularly true for the short run.

In the long run fundamentals take over, but trying to predict when they will overtake irrational group behavior is hard. 

E.g. with the housing price crash that had been predicted by some for years.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: